With the highly publicised price drops in housing in recent weeks, Calgary seems to be quickly heading to a balanced market as purchases (both investors and mostly first time home buyers) seem to be getting off the fence. For the past few weeks, there have been a healthy ratio of sales to new listings, coming in around the 60-70% mark.
Price drops across the board have levelled off and in the case of apartments, improved. Starting with detached homes, sales have dropped off slightly by 2%, but new listings are down a whopping 13%. Days on the market (DOM) has increased by 23%, mostly due to buyers knowing they can take their time to make decisions. Price drops of 5% year over year are carried forward, but definitely levelled off. Most detached homes in good areas have lost no more than a total of 8-10% since the peaks of 2014. So the bulk of the decrease happened in the last year. Again, much of this is due to the stress test forcing buyers to buy lower priced houses. That and a combination of first time buyers getting into the market with starter homes have lowered the medium price of houses sold.
Condos and townhouses are definitely fairing better. While sales are still down 14.5%, inventory has dropped a significant 12%. While we were seeing price drops nearing the double digits in recent years, it has now levelled off to detached rates of 5-7%. Some of this could also be attributed to new builds coming on the market at highly competitive rates.
Attached homes seem to be doing even better with sales UP 4% and new listings DOWN 10%. On my drive abouts, it seems there is plenty of inventory but the statistics do not support it. DOM for detached has increased though by 8.5% and prices year over year are down about 4 to 5%.
The CALGARY REAL ESTATE BOARD is predicting 2020 to be a recovery year based on the direction of the market. Again, depending on outside forces (Federal Election), the market can swing to a balanced market even sooner than that. Most of the 5% price drops happened between last summer and this winter and has throughout the spring basically stopped. So all indications are the market has already levelled off. And with the reduction of inventory and new builders building, it is likely we will see steady prices until next spring.
As Calgarians and visitors celebrate The Stampede, the month of June shows a lot more activity in the housing market then the months preceding it. As it has become clear earlier this spring that the market has bottomed out, slowly but surely the market has seen increasing percentage of sales with respect to new listings. Most of this improvement has happened in the past month.
The significant stats breaks down as follows: In June there were 13% more sales than June of last year while new listings during the month dropped by nearly 21% leaving 16% less active listings than last years' high of nearly 9000 units on the market (currently around 7480 on the market). Over all prices from last June (only for the month) have dropped around 12% owing to the recent listings being priced well below the average price. This of course points to a lot of first time buyers entering the market with entry price purchases. A small but significant number of renovated houses are making a comeback. Buyers are looking more and more for contemporary updated styles and are willing to pay the price for a job well done.
Year over year sales are down slightly, 1.84%, owing to a brutal fall and winter with very low sales volume. Though this drop seems slight, it must be noted that last years sales were also low compared to the average over decades. Significant though is that listings were also down nearly 14% year over year as sellers seemed to get the message last year was not a good time to put their homes on the market. Average price for all homes was down 5%, reflecting the most significant drop over the years in all types of listings. Of special note here is the days on the market increased a whopping 20%. The tug of war continued with sellers holding onto their list prices and buyers continuing to search for bargains.
In the detached market total sales were down 2.5% while attached (mostly driven by new builds and investors) were actually UP 3.56%. Both home types suffered year over year price drops of 3-5%. The biggest losses continue to be the condo/townhouse market which saw sales drop by nearly 7% and average price drops of 8.6%. It must be noted that these saw the most significant price drops in the years leading up to 2018 so while SF (single family) homes might have only lost 8-10% in value since the peak in 2014, some condo units (particularly the older dated ones) have lost as much as 30% since that same time.
As for the future, there continues to be great debate. There are signs of confidence and perhaps cautious optimism with some, but when the market is in the bottom it sometimes takes factors outside of the market to pull it out. As lately, it remains a buyer's market but the seller resistance to offer bargain prices continues to take hold.
I wish all a very merry Stampede week.
Summer is within reach and the Spring market has picked up (particularly after the provincial election) but not nearly as much as historical normals. Yet sales are consistent going forward, indicating that summer might not be as dormant as usual.
Better employment numbers might be driving sales and a slight improvement in buyer confidence moving forward. There is still a lot of catching up to do and the numbers still indicate a solid buyer’s market.
There is general consensus amongst the industry, and from the general buying public that we have hit bottom sometime during the early part of spring. I have been watching listing prices recently which remain somewhere between the 2008 peak and 2014 peak in most communities, which indicates that sellers have either refused to drop prices further, or that they are confident they will find buyers. This is indicated by the number of days on the market, which has diminished recently for the lower priced homes, particularly in single family detached. That said, undesirable houses, in undesirable locations, still sit stagnant on the market.
Interest rates are on the decline and indications that the BOC will drop rates as well rather than increase them. The most notable piece of the puzzle occurs on June 18, with the TransMountain Pipeline decision. Should the project be approved, it may not immediately affect employment, but will have a profound affect on buyer psychology. Motivated buyers waiting until after this decision can be affected both positively or negatively depending on the news. We may actually see a return to multiple offers on good investments in the case of positive news, or the reverse if the pipeline is delayed further.
Sales growth in May was met with a decline in new listings. Inventory was 7,467 units, a decline of 12 per cent compared to last year. While still oversupplied, this is an improvement from the five months of supply recorded last May. Citywide sales in May totalled 1,921 units, 11 per cent higher than last year’s levels. However, sales remain 10 per cent below longer-term trends. As has been the case for years, this sales growth was primarily driven by homes prices under $500,000.
The condo townhouse market remains oversupplied yet surprisingly is over 8% LESS than last year, likely due to a recent termination of listings more than actual sales. Semi-detached homes on the other hand, took a year over year hit of 4 - 6% in medium price decrease, with an increase of 18% of inventory leading to an increase of 21% of days on the market. The oversupply was led mostly by newly built Duplexes.
There is positive news for detached houses which saw a 12% decrease in listings, but sales there are still 10% below historical averages. What is notable, is the price decreases stopped as of last few months, which just a fraction of percentage registering with most sales. Year over year, prices remain anywhere from less than a percent (N.E) in losses, versus the hardest hit City Center (-6.5%) and the deep South (-5.25%).
The buyer's market continues. Though listings have eased to well under 8000 over the past few months, they are still at very high levels. Inventories and sales totalled 7,345 and 1,322 in October. This has resulted in months of supply of 5.6, above levels typical for this month.
Citywide benchmark prices totalled $426,300 in October, resulting in a year-over-year decline of 2.9 per cent. As we enter into a winter market, it's likely some listings will be pulled and/or further price reductions will occur on "stale listings". I might add that this is typical of the season and more cyclical than a suggestion that the market has further decreases ahead.
For each of the property types, sales activity has improved in the lower price ranges, leaving most of those segments relatively balanced. However, the upper end of the ranges has seen significant gains in supply compared to demand, which is likely having more of an impact on prices in those ranges.
The struggle between sellers who firmly believe prices have bottomed, and buyers who are either opportunists or still sitting on the fence continues. It won't likely stop throughout the winter.
Summer seems to have cooled off recently but the housing market seemed to stay cool all summer long. August was very slow even in comparison to last year with sales dropping by 6%, The number of listings has also dropped as people are thinking twice about listing during an overly saturated market. Listings have dropped to the low 8000s from over 8600 earlier in the summer. Sales have helped, but some properties have just been taken off the market. There is still a lingering reticence from some sellers to "give their houses away".
The Kinder Morgan TransMountain Pipeline issue is sure to impact the fall and winter months but it will be hard to say how much as we are already entrenched in a buyer's market. There are bargains out there for those looking, but well priced homes in good areas still seem to fetch decent prices for sellers who are patient.
Overall the market is somewhat stagnant as the oil Industry is slow to recover, unemployment stays relatively high and new mortgage rules continue to have an impact. While 2017 was slow in terms of total sales, 2018 is even slower with a 16% drop Year to Date volume of sales. New listings have dropped recently, helping with some recovery but the days on market for all homes have increased by 22% for detached homes and roughly 12% for condos/townhouses and attached. The benchmark price and average price have stayed relatively stable for single family homes with only a minute drop in price, while condos/townhouses have seen a further 3% decline. Attached homes have fared in between with an average drop in price of around 1.5%. The positive news is that condos and attached houses have dropped far less than in previous years and new attached houses are selling at increased prices in the inner city from the years previous.
While houses have stayed on the market for a while, in some instances there have a sudden interest in well priced, well located homes and we've been privy to yet another multiple offer situation. It seems late August brought about a micro-burst of activity as summer winds down. It may or may not continue depending on the impact of the court ruling on Kinder Morgan.
In the meantime, Cochrane has become a mini tech hub suddenly for a growing company, Garmin Canada, and it may take a few of these alternative businesses to kick start our real estate market before a full fledged recovery is in sight. We stay entrenched in a plateau where a relative lack of activity indicates the buyer's market is far from over.
As we enter into the "dog days" of Summer, it is beginning to be clear that the housing market continues to take a holiday as well. Overall prices are down just under 2% with some sectors up somewhat, and others down a lot. But the main factor is a somewhat lack of interest from buyers despite a whole lot of improvement in the economic sector and a surprising 22,000+ surge in immigration to Calgary. Most seem to be renting, or staying in the rental market for now as the vacancy rate has dropped from 4% down to 3%. It seems to be a watch and wait attitude.
This and yet another interest rate hike seems to dampen sales and prices look to be adjusting to the current reality.
Citywide months of supply have risen for each property type and currently range from nearly five months in the detached sector to seven months in the apartment sector. These elevated levels have been placing pressure on prices in the city.
Detached benchmark home prices totaled $501,300 in July, down 0.4 per cent from last month and over two per cent from last year's levels. Year-to-date average benchmark prices in the detached sector remain just below levels recorded last year.
The apartment ownership sector continues to see the steepest declines, with year-to-date benchmark prices averaging $257,343, three per cent below last year and nearly 14 per cent below 2014 highs.
Oversupply issues continue to worsen in each district of the city compared to last year. However, compared to historical conditions, conditions today remain better than in 2016 in both the West and City Centre districts. Year-to-date, the West and City Centre areas have recorded prices higher than last year's levels and continue to edge towards price recovery. Benchmark prices in the West have averaged $733,329 this year, comparable to previous highs. City Centre benchmark prices have averaged $693,243, nearly three per cent below previous highs. Most districts have recorded detached prices that remain over four per cent below previous highs.
Easing new listings in the apartment condominium sector have prevented any further gains in the amount of inventory in the market.
Like the other sectors, attached sales have been easing this year, with 2,225 sales this year representing a 15 per cent decline over the previous year.
As the inevitable recovery period seems to be anyone's guess, there is good indication that once "bargain hunters" and sellers who are holding tight at their prices give way to one or the other, we will start to see either a further short term drop in prices during the coming 3 to 6 months, or the very laborious and gradual crawl to a long term recovery.
Buyers can be assured the market has been at bottom, or is near bottom right now and there are bargains out there as the number of multiple offers seems to have dissipated in the summer heat. Sellers again have to be cognisant of the market reality when they list, and of the benefits of listing a clean, presentable house.
Well, July is upon us and it looks like the summer will bring hot weather again. Unfortunately, the housing market continues to be anything but hot. Sales continue to be slow and now that school's out, sales are plunging. For a brief few weeks in June, it looked like things were beginning to ramp up, but it was very short lived.
Listings are now at an all time high of 8800, and prices are slowly moving downward. This is NOT an indicator of house values falling, only that the stress test has affected more buyers' bottom lines than previously anticipated. People are buying less expensive houses; at least the people who are buying.
Pockets of over million dollar houses are selling in popular inner city and newer south west communities. Those buyers seem to be taking advantage of low prices on the high end homes. New builds in the inner city are selling at near 2014 levels because, while many are still under construction, very few are available for possession in the spring/summer market. New homes in the outskirts are seeing very modest sales.
Condos and townhouses are still struggling. New listings are slowly diminishing but there is still a glut of more than 4000 on the market, mostly holdovers from 2017. Sale prices have been a staggering 32% less than this time last year.
While oil pushes upward and unemployment pushes downward, one would think it's only a matter of time before consumer confidence is restored. With the apparent corrections happening in Toronto/Vancouver and Ontario in general, it seems that confidence is being challenged by outside forces.
This will likely be a sluggish summer, which bodes well for buyers, followed (hopefully) by some activity in the fall. Another interest rate is pending which might motivate some buyers to get off the fence.
The weather may have improved, but house sales certainly did not, during the month of May. We reached an incredible high of over 8500 listings a week ago, with it dropping to 8450 territory, less through sales and more through termination of listings. So while listings are up a staggering 37% over a year ago, sales are down by almost 20% from last year --- which historically was not such a strong year to begin with.
Yet economic indicators are that Calgary is on the rebound with immigration to the city returning and job growth also in evidence. Why the stagnation in the housing market? Perhaps a hangover from the stress test and tougher mortgage rules, higher interest rates, and/or a slow return to consumer confidence...
Builders are starting to build again in the inner city, new communities are springing up and recently a super hotel is slated to be built in Downtown Calgary. All are indicators someone is confident about Calgary's future.
Perhaps things will turn around quickly, perhaps not so much. However, there is a turn around coming. For now, we've receded back into a buyer's market so if you are a buyer, and you can qualify, I repeat last month's opinion -- there couldn't be a better time to buy than now!
If you are thinking about selling, the pressure is on more than ever to do those little fixes, a paint touch up, or anything to get your property looking it's best before it hits the market. And oh...pricing it right will go a long way to ensuring a sale as well!
It may be the weather but the Calgary housing market is coming off a ridiculously slow winter and into a (so far) slow spring. Except for a blip of sales towards the end of the year where people were buying to beat the new stress test, listings are up and sales are down by 30%. There was a mad rush for sellers to get houses on the market a month ago which brought total listings into the 6700 mark, a good 1000 above average.
Prices for the most part have held steady on average. Huge jumps in the inner city have been counterbalanced by reductions in the suburbs and condos. Detached houses take about 3 months to sell (an average historically in a balanced market) while townhouses and condos can sit on the market for as much as 6-8 months.
With weather improving, there is a change the market will pick up significantly but a lot of unknown factors still exist. Confidence is up as the job market improves. Overall the market is still weighed slightly in favour of buyers but GOOD listings are snapped up pretty quickly.
I expect a see-saw ride for the rest of the year with occasional bursts of activity followed by periods of dormancy.
The trend for a slow summer market has ebbed into the fall as sales continue to slump and listings increase. CREB maintains the early part of the year was brisker than normal, with sales starting in early January and continuing into May. But now the "wait and see" approach of buyers has triggered a stagnant market. Listings now are well over 7000, the highest ever (about 1500 or 25% above average). Last year sales were less, but listings were also less. This caused a flat-line or leveling off in prices, something which I predicted would come in the spring.
Prices are very unlikely to increase until next Spring when (if I may stick my neck out) I predict a resurgence in brisk sales. I think the slump will therefore continue through the fall and winter. Prices will NOT drop unless sellers are desperate. There have been moderate price increases since last year so we are past "rock bottom" stage. Again, this month I have had the displeasure of a competing bid so some properties are still selling quickly and with multiple offers. Those tend to be in the R2 sub-dividable areas of the inner city with many "tear down" lots surging back at 2014 levels.
What's notable is the lack of sales in the deep south or the NE where sales have up to now, maintained a reasonable pace in comparison to other areas. The NE is considered impervious to slumping economy but it appears that is no longer the case, at least not for now. However, time will tell and most, if not all, communities should see some decent sales in the coming Spring.
I'll start out with some good news. Calgary has (again) been voted as the fifth most liveable city in the world. Here's a link to that news announcement on CBC.
It's been an interesting summer of sorts in the real estate market; from the sudden BOC (BANK OF CANADA) rate increase to a lack of sales Country-wise including an expected correction in the Greater Toronto Area market.
From our observation, the stilted sales in June and July was not entirely unexpected considering what was an early briskness in sales in Calgary that began in January! Yes, there were bargain hunters!
While sales were down, prices in Calgary were not, especially in the non-condo market. In fact, there were several factions that were up year over year. New duplexes in the city core were listed at 2014 prices and many even sold. The price of "knock-downs" was drastically up as builders were sweeping up listings in preparations for a new building market in 2018. Listings are still up, at 1000-1200 more than average, but the good ones continue continue to sell quickly. I personally have been involved in 4 multiple offers in the past 2 months.
Leading the way of course have been the single detached homes listed under 500K, which if in a good location and well priced were selling in weeks at a significant percentage above what they were last year. And most significantly of all, there is renewed confidence in the market. Sellers are reluctant to sell unless they get their price. Buyers take note, Calgary is moving to a balanced market. We firmly believe we are at the bottom and can only go upward (albeit slowly) from here. Next cycle of bargains will likely be many years away.
Without getting into politics or outside influences, Calgary should weather a kind of flat line to slow growth until next spring. After that, it's likely we will see normal growth in the market.
To all, a pleasant end to the summer.
"就如我们所预计的一样，十月的增长是暂时性的，"卡尔加里地产局经济学家 Ann-Marie Laurie 着重提起了近期借贷政策的改动及其影响. "贷款难度的增加再加上卡城现阶段的经济气候，会给购买的需求带来压力。"
十一月起，Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.正式对所有借款人增加了经济Stress Test（压力测试) 以确保借款人在收入出现变动时依然能够承担和支付贷款利息。压力测试在超过五年锁定利率的单子上曾经是不存在的。
First of all heartfelt condolences to family and friends of victims of the Fort Mac fire. Most of us will never comprehend the scope of such a calamity upon our lives.
We have not posted for the past two month mostly because of the frenzied activity on the market. After being virtually dead since last November, Late March through early May was one of the busiest times in my career. While listings topped 6400 at one time (a near record), sales to that point were flat. We've not only had an abrupt shift in sales, but listings have now dropped off to less than 6000, putting them closer to average.
We've also had two months back-to-back where price increases over the year were evident in most sectors. Putting it into perspective however, it's probable that people were really buying more expensive homes for less money and taking advantage of a 5-15% percent decline in prices over the past 2 years.
The activity may flatten out during summer, with perhaps another short splurge in Fall, but likely will remain relatively flat through until next spring. However, I believe, with oil pushing $50 a barrel and some encouraging signs in futures, we may slowly be hitting bottom. I'd like to encourage all those buyers who have been sitting on the fence for a while to take another serious look at the market. Sellers may wish to wait until next spring to list if they can afford to. I believe we will begin a slow, gradual recovery starting next February/March.
So much has happened in the past month outside of the real estate market and it's effect is a complete unknown. Perhaps the best way to weigh it out would be both in positive and negatives.
- the obvious being the lack of strong representation from this region. But as Alberta slowly transforms from a "have" to "have not" province, Trudeau would be ill advised to not consider a better transfer payment option for the province.
-infrastructure spending equals jobs, which is what we need. Perhaps leading to a slow down of the housing decline here.
THE KEYSTONE PIPELINE
-no denying it was anticipated, but it still hurts badly.
maybe an acceleration of the east-west pipeline and a hard candid look to more sustainable industry development in Alberta.
It is going to hurt. For how long, no one knows. Prices have dropped quickly, especially in some areas, and will continue to slide or level off for a year or more. Some are predicting a bit more activity in the spring, but it is literally dead now. If you are planning on buying, you probably can wait, but the dead of winter is as good a time as any. And something to remember: IT IS WISER TO BUY WHEN THE NEWS IS BAD, THAN BE IN COMPETITION WITH OTHERS WHEN THE NEWS IS GOOD.
All the best to a warm and productive November.
Fall is supposed to be the second most frenzied time of activity in Calgary's housing market. Some will tell you (as I did recently) that business is still brisk at the under 500K level and to a certain degree that is true. However, the news keeps getting worse on Canada's economy and that makes both buyers and investors nervous. Suddenly, this past few days, there is a flood of new homes on the market, after a somewhat slow month. It seems sellers are getting nervous and are putting the house on the market now, whereas last month many were thinking maybe spring.
It all adds up to more inventory, and less buyers. Prices have dropped, and will likely to continue through the winter, even in the 500K range. However it is very important to note that most buyers, as instructed by savvy Realtors, will list low in accordance to the market. I'm seeing, in most cases, prices already adjusted to the realities of the market. That said, there is wiggle room still in purchase price vs list price ratios, but it will be unlikely a huge difference, especially if there are price drops occurring after listing. Again, depending on the desperation of the seller, low-ball offers may or may not work, and often increases a seller's resistance to negotiate.
To conclude, the buyer's market is officially here and likely to stay for a while. It will definitely be a good winter if you are a buyer.
After a brutal week of sad economic news; markets tumbling, oil tumbling below $40 US and Chinese economic woes, we felt that this was going to be a long, cold winter, despite El Nino. Certainly the gloomy news should affect the market - and it has, to an extent. This is indeed very strange times in Calgary real estate. Still seeing multiple offers in well priced homes in the under $550,000 category and those above that price stagnate. Outer NE seems unchanged and inner city lots are definitely down. Builders/developers have stopped buying except in the case of a fabulous deal. The CMHC has recently announced AT RISK cities and Calgary is NOT one of them. For once, we agree with them. There are signs everywhere people are holding back but still confident in the market in the far future. How far? Big question.