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If I copied and pasted last month's newsletter, the details would not be too far off.  We've had a third straight month improvement in sales from last year, though figures are still tame and in favour of buyers. What is definite, not to repeat myself too much, is that the market is in "plateau" mode; a period of time after hitting bottom wherein not much changes and prices stay relatively stable month to month.
 
Year to year, there is a consistent improvement from 2018. Inventory is 13% lower than this time last year, sitting around 6700. That however, is still above the long term average of 5500-6000. This makes for a slight overabundance of listings which of course leads to downward pressure on prices. Also, significantly, it leads to buyers taking their time in making decisions; as a result DOM (days on the market) remains higher even than last years levels.  With Condos, it has increased the least (only 11% from last year), however levels have been high there for years.  Detached days on the market has significantly increased by a whopping 17%, matching increases felt by attached housing.  Reasons are likely the higher prices which are impacted by a continual trend by buyers to move towards low priced homes.
 
For detached homes, supply compared to last year is down 6.54% and like last month, there's been a collective 3-5% reduction in Benchmark, Medium and Average prices year over year. To reiterate, this loss reflects higher in the average/medium range because of a lot of first time buyers jumping in a lower prices and investors taking advantage of lower prices.
 
Attached home listings, despite new ones popping up in the inner city everywhere, are still down year over year at 9.4% with current inventory 6% less than what it was last September. Price wise, detached matches the 3 to 5% reduction that's felt with attached homes. Condo/Apartment listings have taken a huge price drop since 2014 but only slipped around 2-3% since this time last year, thereby taking less of a drop than attached and detached homes.  This smaller drop is indicative that the condo scene, while still in rough waters, may have finally bottomed out.
 
Poor weather might continue to hamper sales in the coming months.  Buyers also seem fixated on the upcoming election.  We may see some significant shifts in the market in the months to come. October sales will be very unpredictable though, with good weather, might see increased activity.
 
Conclusively, the market is slow, showing improvement, but still in a somewhat stagnant state and still in favour of buyers. 
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With summer behind us, a few new trends are affecting the Calgary market which otherwise has maintained a somewhat dormant state.
 
One of the marked increases is the number of new listings over the spring and summer months which brought total listings from a January low of 5000+ to just over 7000.  While this figure is well below last years high of 8900, it surpasses what was happening leading into the fall of 2016 and 2017.  As a result, days on the market (DOM) now has increased across the board. Less so for condos/which were high already, but more for the 500K+ detached and semi-detached homes. The average is about 60 days, slightly above average, but for houses in the 70 - million+ range it rises incrementally with million+ houses staying on the market for 8 months. The major sales continue to be in the 300-400K range with first time home buyers jumping in and taking advantage of a buyer's market. Another trend that seems to be continuing is the "house flip" trend, buying of cheap houses, renovating and flipping.
 
Average price year over year has stayed at about -2 to -3%, with little change month to month, summer from spring. The benchmark price has begun to increase as buyers are starting to take advantage of lowered prices on houses on the high end. The sales to listing ratio has decreased from a spring high of about 67% to about 51% now, meaning as more houses are being listed, sales are not keeping up with them. While the summer has been quite slow, August was VERY SLOW. With the upcoming Federal election looming, it seems a lot of buyers continue to sit on the fence until the results are known.
 
Looking forward is very difficult. There might be a slight fall surge after such a slow summer.  Positive news on the jobs front have helped with some new industries both in and outside of the oil patch getting a kick start.  Employment numbers are slowly increasing in Calgary and the imminent return to work on TransMountain should help.
 
Sellers continue to hold onto their prices. Though decreases are seen every day, listing prices seem to be on the high side, edging close to where they were in early 2013.  We've been bottomed out for months, we're not crawling out yet, but there is a sense of moving forward. Next month will tell more clearly.
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Sales activity increase led by lower-priced homes
 

City of Calgary, September 3, 2019 – Increased sales and easing new listings reduced housing inventories in August. Sales were primarily driven by homes priced below $500,000.

“Employment numbers have been improving, but mostly in industries that are traditionally lower paid,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “This is contributing to the shift that we are seeing in the housing market, with growth being limited to product priced below $500,000.” 

Rising sales for homes priced under $500,000 offset sales declines in the higher price ranges. This caused August sales to improve by six per cent compared to last year. 

Sales activity improved for all product types. The growth was largest for apartment-style and attached properties. 

Attached sales increased for the sixth consecutive month compared to the previous year. This is also the only property type with year-to-date sales higher than last year’s levels. 

New listings continued to ease this month, which caused inventory to decline. This is helping the market shift toward more balanced conditions.

The amount of downward pressure on prices is also easing. At $426,000, the unadjusted citywide benchmark price this month remained comparable to last month, but 2.6 per cent lower than last year’s levels.

Despite improving sales and reductions in inventory, housing market recovery will take time. Inventory levels remain elevated and sales activity is still well below historical norms. The market continues to favour the buyer, with over four months of supply.


HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

  • Year-to-date detached sales remain just below last year’s levels, but sales improved in the South and North West districts this month.  
  • Citywide growth has been driven by homes priced under $500,000. Meanwhile, easing sales and elevated inventories among homes priced above $500,000 have increased the months of supply, pushing it further into buyers’ market territory.
  • Benchmark prices in August ranged from a year-over-year decline of over five per cent in the South district to a decline of nearly one per cent in the South East.    

Apartment

  • For the second month in a row, sales activity improved for apartment-style homes, but these gains were met with a rise in new listings. This prevented any significant adjustments to inventory levels and kept the months of supply elevated.
  • Sales activity remains just below last year’s levels. On average, the amount of inventory in the market this year has eased compared to last year.
  • Citywide benchmark prices in August eased compared to last year, but the East, South East and North East districts recorded modest gains. Despite those gains, prices remain well below 2014 highs.

Attached

  • For the sixth consecutive month, year-over-year attached sales improved in the city. This has resulted in year-to-date sales of 2,665 units, nearly a five per cent increase compared to the previous year. At the same time, new listings continue to ease, causing further reductions in inventory.
  • The months of supply have moved from over six months at this time last year to under five months in August.
  • These improvements have supported some monthly gains in benchmark prices, but August benchmark prices remain 2.6 per cent below last year’s levels.


REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

  • Despite a year-over-year decline in sales activity this month, year-to-date sales sit just above last year’s levels. Unlike Calgary, most of the growth here has been driven by gains in the detached sector. Year-to-date new listings have eased by 13 per cent and inventories have edged down relative to last year.
  • A general trend toward more balanced conditions has eased downward pressure on prices. The benchmark price was $334,600 in August – 1.8 per cent below last year’s levels.

Cochrane

  • Fuelled by reductions in new listings and stable sales, inventories continue to trend down. This has supported some easing in the months of supply, which dropped from nearly eight months in August of last year to five months this year. 
  • Reductions in oversupply have supported more stability in monthly prices. The benchmark price was $408,000 in August, nearly four per cent below last year’s levels.

Okotoks

  • Improving sales in August contributed to year-to date sales of 373 units, slightly higher than last year’s levels, but still below long-term averages. The number of new listings continues to ease. This is causing inventories to decline and reducing the months of supply.
  • Months of supply dropped from nearly 10 months last year to under five months this August. Despite this reduction in oversupply, benchmark prices so far this year have remained over four per cent below last year’s levels.
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Greetings. 
 
With the highly publicised price drops in housing in recent weeks, Calgary seems to be quickly heading to a balanced market as purchases (both investors and mostly first time home buyers) seem to be getting off the fence. For the past few weeks, there have been a healthy ratio of sales to new listings, coming in around the 60-70% mark.
 
Price drops across the board have levelled off and in the case of apartments, improved. Starting with detached homes, sales have dropped off slightly by 2%, but new listings are down a whopping 13%. Days on the market (DOM) has increased by 23%, mostly due to buyers knowing they can take their time to make decisions.  Price drops of 5% year over year are carried forward, but definitely levelled off. Most detached homes in good areas have lost no more than a total of 8-10% since the peaks of 2014. So the bulk of the decrease happened in the last year. Again, much of this is due to the stress test forcing buyers to buy lower priced houses. That and a combination of first time buyers getting into the market with starter homes have lowered the medium price of houses sold.
 
Condos and townhouses are definitely fairing better. While sales are still down 14.5%,  inventory has dropped a significant 12%. While we were seeing price drops nearing the double digits in recent years, it has now levelled off to detached rates of 5-7%.  Some of this could also be attributed to new builds coming on the market at highly competitive rates.
 
Attached homes seem to be doing even better with sales UP 4% and new listings DOWN 10%.  On my drive abouts, it seems there is plenty of inventory but the statistics do not support it. DOM for detached has increased though by 8.5% and prices year over year are down about 4 to 5%.
 
The CALGARY REAL ESTATE BOARD is predicting 2020 to be a recovery year based on the direction of the market. Again, depending on outside forces (Federal Election), the market can swing to a balanced market even sooner than that.  Most of the 5% price drops happened between last summer and this winter and has throughout the spring basically stopped. So all indications are the market has already levelled off.  And with the reduction of inventory and new builders building, it is likely we will see steady prices until next spring.
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Greetings!
 
As Calgarians and visitors celebrate The Stampede, the month of June shows a lot more activity in the housing market then the months preceding it. As it has become clear earlier this spring that the market has bottomed out, slowly but surely the market has seen increasing percentage of sales with respect to new listings. Most of this improvement has happened in the past month.
 
The significant stats breaks down as follows: In June there were 13% more sales than June of last year while new listings during the month dropped by nearly 21% leaving 16% less active listings than last years' high of nearly 9000 units on the market (currently around 7480 on the market). Over all prices from last June (only for the month) have dropped around 12% owing to the recent listings being priced well below the average price. This of course points to a lot of first time buyers entering the market with entry price purchases. A small but significant number of renovated houses are making a comeback.  Buyers are looking more and more for contemporary updated styles and are willing to pay the price for a job well done.
 
Year over year sales are down slightly, 1.84%, owing to a brutal fall and winter with very low sales volume. Though this drop seems slight, it must be noted that last years sales were also low compared to the average over decades. Significant though is that listings were also down nearly 14% year over year as sellers seemed to get the message last year was not a good time to put their homes on the market. Average price for all homes was down 5%, reflecting the most significant drop over the years in all types of listings. Of special note here is the days on the market increased a whopping 20%.  The tug of war continued with sellers holding onto their list prices and buyers continuing to search for bargains.
 
In the detached market total sales were down 2.5% while attached (mostly driven by new builds and investors) were actually UP 3.56%. Both home types suffered year over year price drops of 3-5%.  The biggest losses continue to be the condo/townhouse market which saw sales drop by nearly 7% and average price drops of 8.6%.  It must be noted that these saw the most significant price drops in the years leading up to 2018 so while SF (single family) homes might have only lost 8-10% in value since the peak in 2014, some condo units (particularly the older dated ones) have lost as much as 30% since that same time.
 
As for the future, there continues to be great debate.  There are signs of confidence and perhaps cautious optimism with some, but when the market is in the bottom it sometimes takes factors outside of the market to pull it out.  As lately, it remains a buyer's market but the seller resistance to offer bargain prices continues to take hold. 
 
I wish all a very merry Stampede week.
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Summer is within reach and the Spring market has picked up (particularly after the provincial election) but not nearly as much as historical normals.  Yet sales are consistent going forward, indicating that summer might not be as dormant as usual.
 
Better employment numbers might be driving sales and a slight improvement in buyer confidence moving forward. There is still a lot of catching up to do and the numbers still indicate a solid buyer’s market.
 
There is general consensus amongst the industry, and from the general buying public that we have hit bottom sometime during the early part of spring. I have been watching listing prices recently which remain somewhere between the 2008 peak and 2014 peak in most communities, which indicates that sellers have either refused to drop prices further, or that they are confident they will find buyers.  This is indicated by the number of days on the market, which has diminished recently for the lower priced homes, particularly in single family detached.  That said, undesirable houses, in undesirable locations, still sit stagnant on the market.
 
Interest rates are on the decline and indications that the BOC will drop rates as well rather than increase them.  The most notable piece of the puzzle occurs on June 18, with the TransMountain Pipeline decision.  Should the project be approved, it may not immediately affect employment, but will have a profound affect on buyer psychology. Motivated buyers waiting until after this decision can be affected both positively or negatively depending on the news. We may actually see a return to multiple offers on good investments in the case of positive news, or the reverse if the pipeline is delayed further.
 
Sales growth in May was met with a decline in new listings. Inventory was 7,467 units, a decline of 12 per cent compared to last year. While still oversupplied, this is an improvement from the five months of supply recorded last May. Citywide sales in May totalled 1,921 units, 11 per cent higher than last year’s levels. However, sales remain 10 per cent below longer-term trends. As has been the case for years, this sales growth was primarily driven by homes prices under $500,000.
 
The condo townhouse market remains oversupplied yet surprisingly is over 8% LESS than last year, likely due to a recent termination of listings more than actual sales.  Semi-detached homes on the other hand, took a year over year hit of 4 - 6% in medium price decrease, with an increase of 18% of inventory leading to an increase of 21% of days on the market. The oversupply was led mostly by newly built Duplexes.
 
There is positive news for detached houses which saw a 12% decrease in listings, but sales there are still 10% below historical averages. What is notable, is the price decreases stopped as of last few months, which just a fraction of percentage registering with most sales. Year over year, prices remain anywhere from less than a percent (N.E) in losses, versus the hardest hit City Center (-6.5%) and the deep South (-5.25%).
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The buyer's market continues.  Though listings have eased to well under 8000 over the past few months, they are still at very high levels. Inventories and sales totalled 7,345 and 1,322 in October. This has resulted in months of supply of 5.6, above levels typical for this month.


Citywide benchmark prices totalled $426,300 in October, resulting in a year-over-year decline of 2.9 per cent. As we enter into a winter market, it's likely some listings will be pulled and/or further price reductions will occur on "stale listings". I might add that this is typical of the season and more cyclical than a suggestion that the market has further decreases ahead.

Rising interest rates may also put downward pressure on the first time buyers in particular, and therefore affect those purchases common to that market. It bodes very well for those with cash on hand to take advantage of a market that is currently rock bottom. One factor that may lead to increased sales in the near future is the fear of further interest rate hikes.

For each of the property types, sales activity has improved in the lower price ranges, leaving most of those segments relatively balanced. However, the upper end of the ranges has seen significant gains in supply compared to demand, which is likely having more of an impact on prices in those ranges.

  • Detached home sales in October totalled 829 units for a year to date decline of 15%.
  • but on a year-to-date basis, prices remain only one per cent below last year’s levels.
  • According to the monthly report (attached) as of October, year-over-year prices have eased across all districts, with the largest declines occurring in the North East, North West, South and South East districts. This is likely a result of added competition from the new-home sector. 
  • Year-to-date apartment sales are nearly seven per cent below last year with 7 month supplies on the market., Condominium prices remain a whopping 14 per cent below 2014 highs. Declines occurred across all districts, with the steepest declines occurring in the North East, East and South districts.
  • The attached sector has recorded year-to-date sales of 15 per cent below last year and 14 per cent below long-term averages. Meanwhile, despite recent easing in new listings, October inventories are the highest level on record. The oversupply is affecting both the semi-detached and row sectors, which have seen prices trend down over the past 5 months.
  • As of October, semi-detached prices were $403,400, one per cent lower than last month and nearly three per cent lower than last year. Despite recent declines, year-to-date citywide prices remain relatively flat compared to last year. This was most due to gains in the City Centre, North East and East districts offsetting declines in the North West, South and South East.

The struggle between sellers who firmly believe prices have bottomed, and buyers who are either opportunists or still sitting on the fence continues.  It won't likely stop throughout the winter.

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Summer seems to have cooled off recently but the housing market seemed to stay cool all summer long. August was very slow even in comparison to last year with sales dropping by 6%,  The number of listings has also dropped as people are thinking twice about listing during an overly saturated market. Listings have dropped to the low 8000s from over 8600 earlier in the summer. Sales have helped, but some properties have just been taken off the market. There is still a lingering reticence from some sellers to "give their houses away".
 
The Kinder Morgan TransMountain Pipeline issue is sure to impact the fall and winter months but it will be hard to say how much as we are already entrenched in a buyer's market. There are bargains out there for those looking, but well priced homes in good areas still seem to fetch decent prices for sellers who are patient.
 
Overall the market is somewhat stagnant as the oil Industry is slow to recover, unemployment stays relatively high and new mortgage rules continue to have an impact. While 2017 was slow in terms of total sales, 2018 is even slower with a 16% drop Year to Date volume of sales. New listings have dropped recently, helping with some recovery but the days on market for all homes have increased by 22%  for detached homes and roughly 12% for condos/townhouses and attached. The benchmark price and average price have stayed relatively stable for single family homes with only a minute drop in price, while condos/townhouses have seen a further 3% decline. Attached homes have fared in between with an average drop in price of around 1.5%. The positive news is that condos and attached houses have dropped far less than in previous years and new attached houses are selling at increased prices in the inner city from the years previous.
 
While houses have stayed on the market for a while, in some instances there have a sudden interest in well priced, well located homes and we've been privy to yet another multiple offer situation.  It seems late August brought about a micro-burst of activity as summer winds down. It may or may not continue depending on the impact of the court ruling on Kinder Morgan.
 
In the meantime, Cochrane has become a mini tech hub suddenly for a growing company, Garmin Canada, and it may take a few of these alternative businesses to kick start our real estate market before a full fledged recovery is in sight. We stay entrenched in a plateau where a relative lack of activity indicates the buyer's market is far from over.
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As we enter into the "dog days" of Summer, it is beginning to be clear that the housing market continues to take a holiday as well. Overall prices are down just under 2% with some sectors up somewhat, and others down a lot. But the main factor is a somewhat lack of interest from buyers despite a whole lot of improvement in the economic sector and a surprising 22,000+ surge in immigration to Calgary. Most seem to be renting, or staying in the rental market for now as the vacancy rate has dropped from 4% down to 3%.  It seems to be a watch and wait attitude.

This and yet another interest rate hike seems to dampen sales and prices look to be adjusting to the current reality.
 
The month of July saw 1,547 units sold in Calgary, nearly five per cent below last year. New listings eased to 2,964 units, causing inventories to total 8,450 units. With more supply than demand, prices continued to edge down, with a citywide average of $435,200. This amounted to a month-over-month price decline of 0.30 per cent and year-over-year decline of 1.89 per cent. 

Citywide months of supply have risen for each property type and currently range from nearly five months in the detached sector to seven months in the apartment sector. These elevated levels have been placing pressure on prices in the city.

Detached benchmark home prices totaled $501,300 in July, down 0.4 per cent from last month and over two per cent from last year's levels. Year-to-date average benchmark prices in the detached sector remain just below levels recorded last year.

The apartment ownership sector continues to see the steepest declines, with year-to-date benchmark prices averaging $257,343, three per cent below last year and nearly 14 per cent below 2014 highs.

Oversupply issues continue to worsen in each district of the city compared to last year. However, compared to historical conditions, conditions today remain better than in 2016 in both the West and City Centre districts. Year-to-date, the West and City Centre areas have recorded prices higher than last year's levels and continue to edge towards price recovery. Benchmark prices in the West have averaged $733,329 this year, comparable to previous highs. City Centre benchmark prices have averaged $693,243, nearly three per cent below previous highs. Most districts have recorded detached prices that remain over four per cent below previous highs.


Apartments

Easing new listings in the apartment condominium sector have prevented any further gains in the amount of inventory in the market.
Supply levels remain elevated compared to sales, keeping year-to-date prices three per cent below last year's levels and nearly 14 per cent below previous highs.
Citywide inventory levels remain just below last year. July inventories edged down in the North East, North, North West, South and East areas of the city compared to the previous year.
Levels remain elevated by historical standards, but any reductions in inventory can help reduce oversupply.

Attached

Like the other sectors, attached sales have been easing this year, with 2,225 sales this year representing a 15 per cent decline over the previous year.
Gains in new listings pushed up inventory levels and months of supply compared to last year.
Citywide year-to-date semi-detached prices have eased by nearly one per cent compared to last year. Benchmark price changes have ranged from a three per cent decline in the North West district to a six per cent increase in the South district. Despite the annual gain this year in the South district, semi-detached prices remain nearly five per cent lower than that district's peak. Year-to-date benchmark row prices have increased on a citywide basis due to gains in the City Centre, North and North West districts. The annual gain is a positive move towards recovery, but row prices remain well below previous highs in every district of the city.

As the inevitable recovery period seems to be anyone's guess, there is good indication that once "bargain hunters" and sellers who are holding tight at their prices give way to one or the other, we will start to see either a further short term drop in prices during the coming 3 to 6 months, or the very laborious and gradual crawl to a long term recovery.

Buyers can be assured the market has been at bottom, or is near bottom right now and there are bargains out there as the number of multiple offers seems to have dissipated in the summer heat. Sellers again have to be cognisant of the market reality when they list, and of the benefits of listing a clean, presentable house.

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Well, July is upon us and it looks like the summer will bring hot weather again.  Unfortunately, the housing market continues to be anything but hot. Sales continue to be slow and now that school's out, sales are plunging.  For a brief few weeks in June, it looked like things were beginning to ramp up, but it was very short lived.
 
Listings are now at an all time high of 8800, and prices are slowly moving downward.  This is NOT an indicator of house values falling, only that the stress test has affected more buyers' bottom lines than previously anticipated.  People are buying less expensive houses; at least the people who are buying.
 
Pockets of over million dollar houses are selling in popular inner city and newer south west communities. Those buyers seem to be taking advantage of low prices on the high end homes. New builds in the inner city are selling at near 2014 levels because, while many are still under construction, very few are available for possession in the spring/summer market. New homes in the outskirts are seeing very modest sales.
 
Condos and townhouses are still struggling. New listings are slowly diminishing but there is still a glut of more than 4000 on the market, mostly holdovers from 2017.  Sale prices have been a staggering 32% less than this time last year.
 
While oil pushes upward and unemployment pushes downward, one would think it's only a matter of time before consumer confidence is restored. With the apparent corrections happening in Toronto/Vancouver and Ontario in general, it seems that confidence is being challenged by outside forces.
 
This will likely be a sluggish summer, which bodes well for buyers, followed (hopefully) by some activity in the fall. Another interest rate is pending which might motivate some buyers to get off the fence. 
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The weather may have improved, but house sales certainly did not, during the month of May. We reached an incredible high of over 8500 listings a week ago, with it dropping to 8450 territory, less through sales and more through termination of listings. So while listings are up a staggering 37% over a year ago, sales are down by almost 20% from last year --- which historically was not such a strong year to begin with.
 
Yet economic indicators are that Calgary is on the rebound with immigration to the city returning and job growth also in evidence. Why the stagnation in the housing market?  Perhaps a hangover from the stress test and tougher mortgage rules, higher interest rates, and/or a slow return to consumer confidence...
 
Builders are starting to build again in the inner city, new communities are springing up and recently a super hotel is slated to be built in Downtown Calgary.  All are indicators someone is confident about Calgary's future.
 
Perhaps things will turn around quickly, perhaps not so much. However, there is a turn around coming.  For now, we've receded back into a buyer's market so if you are a buyer, and you can qualify, I repeat last month's opinion -- there couldn't be a better time to buy than now!
 
If you are thinking about selling, the pressure is on more than ever to do those little fixes, a paint touch up, or anything to get your property looking it's best before it hits the market.  And oh...pricing it right will go a long way to ensuring a sale as well!
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Greetings!
 
It may be the weather but the Calgary housing market is coming off a ridiculously slow winter and into a (so far) slow spring.  Except for a blip of sales towards the end of the year where people were buying to beat the new stress test, listings are up and sales are down by 30%. There was a mad rush for sellers to get houses on the market a month ago which brought total listings into the 6700 mark, a good 1000 above average.
 
Prices for the most part have held steady on average.  Huge jumps in the inner city have been counterbalanced by reductions in the suburbs and condos. Detached houses take about 3 months to sell (an average historically in a balanced market) while townhouses and condos can sit on the market for as much as 6-8 months.
 
With weather improving, there is a change the market will pick up significantly but a lot of unknown factors still exist.  Confidence is up as the job market improves. Overall the market is still weighed slightly in favour of buyers but GOOD listings are snapped up pretty quickly.
 
I expect a see-saw ride for the rest of the year with occasional bursts of activity followed by periods of dormancy.
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The trend for a slow summer market has ebbed into the fall as sales continue to slump and listings increase. CREB maintains the early part of the year was brisker than normal, with sales starting in early January and continuing into May. But now the "wait and see" approach of buyers has triggered a stagnant market. Listings now are well over 7000, the highest ever (about 1500 or 25% above average). Last year sales were less, but listings were also less. This caused a flat-line or leveling off in prices, something which I predicted would come in the spring. 
 
Prices are very unlikely to increase until next Spring when (if I may stick my neck out) I predict a resurgence in brisk sales. I think the slump will therefore continue through the fall and winter. Prices will NOT drop unless sellers are desperate.  There have been moderate price increases since last year so we are past "rock bottom" stage. Again, this month I have had the displeasure of a competing bid so some properties are still selling quickly and with multiple offers. Those tend to be in the R2 sub-dividable areas of the inner city with many "tear down" lots surging back at 2014 levels.
 
What's notable is the lack of sales in the deep south or the NE where sales have up to now, maintained a reasonable pace in comparison to other areas. The NE is considered impervious to slumping economy but it appears that is no longer the case, at least not for now. However, time will tell and most, if not all, communities should see some decent sales in the coming Spring.
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I'll start out with some good news. Calgary has (again) been voted as the fifth most liveable city in the world. Here's a link to that news announcement on CBC.
 
 
 
 
It's been an interesting summer of sorts in the real estate market; from the sudden BOC (BANK OF CANADA) rate increase to a lack of sales Country-wise including an expected correction in the Greater Toronto Area market.
 
 
From our observation, the stilted sales in June and July was not entirely unexpected considering what was an early briskness in sales in Calgary that began in January! Yes, there were bargain hunters!
 
 
While sales were down, prices in Calgary were not, especially in the non-condo market. In fact, there were several factions that were up year over year.  New duplexes in the city core were listed at 2014 prices and many even sold.  The price of "knock-downs" was drastically up as builders were sweeping up listings in preparations for a new building market in 2018. Listings are still up, at 1000-1200 more than average, but the good ones continue continue to sell quickly. I personally have been involved in 4 multiple offers in the past 2 months.
 
 
Leading the way of course have been the single detached homes listed under 500K, which if in a good location and well priced were selling in weeks at a significant percentage above what they were last year. And most significantly of all, there is renewed confidence in the market.  Sellers are reluctant to sell unless they get their price.  Buyers take note, Calgary is moving to a balanced market. We firmly believe we are at the bottom and can only go upward (albeit slowly) from here. Next cycle of bargains will likely be many years away.
 
 
Without getting into politics or outside influences, Calgary should weather a kind of flat line to slow growth until next spring. After that, it's likely we will see normal growth in the market.
 
 
To all, a pleasant end to the summer. 
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As per the Canadian Real Estate Association’s (CREA) latest update, national home sales fell 1.7% from March to April and 7.5% compared to last year. Newly listed homes, however, were up 10% from March to April. This is good news if you are looking to purchase a home now with more home listings entering the market and hopefully less bidding wars which have contributed to rising prices.


Canadians still have a strong desire for home ownership for both lifestyle and long term financial reasons. Many Canadians have taken advantage of recent increases in the value of their current homes and are moving up to larger homes or using the equity to buy investment properties. Apart from the fact that you get to live in your tangible investment, down the road when you decide to sell, the proceeds of your principal residence are tax free unlike other investments. This is a significant advantage come retirement time.

 
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本地房产九月和十月的销售和去年同比有所改进,但在十一月又下降了。

 

在十一月里,总共有1227套售出,比2015年低了2.8%,比多年平均数值要低整整17%。而十月里有1600余套房产售出,比去年同期高出16%。

 

"就如我们所预计的一样,十月的增长是暂时性的,"卡尔加里地产局经济学家 Ann-Marie Laurie 着重提起了近期借贷政策的改动及其影响. "贷款难度的增加再加上卡城现阶段的经济气候,会给购买的需求带来压力。"

 

十一月起,Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.正式对所有借款人增加了经济Stress Test(压力测试) 以确保借款人在收入出现变动时依然能够承担和支付贷款利息。压力测试在超过五年锁定利率的单子上曾经是不存在的。

 

  • 独立屋平均售价降至$498,300。这是2014年起首次低于50万。

  • 11月售出的所有房产的中位价是$427,000,比去年低了4%。

  • 所有房产的平均成交价格是$485,395,比去年增加了5.2%

  • 至今为止,本年总成交量为10,642套,比去年低了3.1%

  • ​公寓销量只有2,582套,比去年低了整整16%

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Greetings.
 
First of all heartfelt condolences to family and friends of victims of the Fort Mac fire. Most of us will never comprehend the scope of such a calamity upon our lives.
 
We have not posted for the past two month mostly because of the frenzied activity on the market. After being virtually dead since last November, Late March through early May was one of the busiest times in my career. While listings topped 6400 at one time (a near record), sales to that point were flat. We've not only had an abrupt shift in sales, but listings have now dropped off to less than 6000, putting them closer to average.
 
We've also had two months back-to-back where price increases over the year were evident in most sectors. Putting it into perspective however, it's probable that people were really buying more expensive homes for less money and taking advantage of a 5-15% percent decline in prices over the past 2 years.
 
The activity may flatten out during summer, with perhaps another short splurge in Fall, but likely will remain relatively flat through until next spring. However, I believe, with oil pushing $50 a barrel and some encouraging signs in futures, we may slowly be hitting bottom. I'd like to encourage all those buyers who have been sitting on the fence for a while to take another serious look at the market. Sellers may wish to wait until next spring to list if they can afford to. I believe we will begin a slow, gradual recovery starting next February/March.
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温哥华和多伦多是加拿大移民人口最多的城市,尤其是温哥华,中国移民占温哥华整个城市人口比例约30%。受自然环境和教育资源等有利条件所吸引,但是这两个城市的房价也因此一冲到天,反而由于石油的暴跌,对于石油城市卡尔加里而言原本就比温哥华低一倍以上的价格更加凸显投资优势,吸引了越来越多的国人选择置业投资,特别是其落基山脉和著名banff后花园吸引了大批游者,随着直飞卡尔加里的航班落定,近年来到加拿大卡尔加里买房的内地买家越来越多,而大陆移民固有的对房地产买卖的一些疑问也渐渐涌现出来。

 

初期问题:

 

1、在加拿大买房能移民吗?

 

不能移民。对于“加拿大买房能移民吗”这个问题,虽然在加拿大买房属于一种商业投资行为,但是这种投资属于投资者个人行为,加拿大政府没有调控与管理的资格,由于申请加拿大投资移民必须将资金置于加拿大政府指定基金的管辖下,申请人无权掌控资金的投资方式,因此投资者在加拿大买房是不符合加拿大政府投资移民规定的,而且目前为止加拿大政府并没有开放类似政策。

 

2、买卖房屋是否一定要本人到加拿大?

 

如果购房人需要向加拿大银行申请贷款,则本人一定要来加拿大,与银行当面签署贷款文件。如果不需要银行贷款,则可以通过传真形式签订购房合同或委托代理人办理交纳定金、验房及交房的相关手续。您聘请的地产经纪人会通过现代通讯手段:传真、扫描、邮件等方法处理在买卖过程中需要您签字的文件;检验房屋由第三方注册验屋师出具相关的报告;最后的钱房交易及到地产局获得产权文件都由买卖双方各自的律师来完成。

 

3、中国人在加拿大买房有什么限制吗?是不是看中了任何房子或者房产都能买?

 

外国人或非加拿大居民可以自由买卖加拿大房地产。根据加拿大联邦政府«公民法»,非加拿大居民亦能够购置、拥有和出售房地产,其要遵守的规定与条件和加拿大居民或公民相同。然而该法律也赋予了各省权力以对非公民与非永久居民,或由其控制的公司和社团购置土地进行限制。

 

4、外籍人士在加拿大买房有什么要求吗?

 

  1. 外国人需要在加拿大本土开设银行账户。

  2. 无论是否是加拿大居民,都需要保持良好的信用记录。

  3. 外国人需要有足够的首付款。

  4. 外国人可以授权加拿大境内的亲戚或朋友代理完成按揭贷款。

  5. 外国人需要做好加拿大银行账户的管理和安排。

  6. 外国人在贷款买房时,银行会要求律师在登记产权时备注“外国人税务条款”,即,在卖房时,借款人如果依然还是非居民身份,需要将部分卖房款留置到完成税务申报之后再决定如何处置售房款。

     


5、外籍人士在加拿大买房子首付需要多少钱?

 

不同借贷机构对首付款有不同的要求,如果外籍人士被加拿大银行认定为高风险信用对象,您可能需要支付更多的首付款。某些借贷机构要求外籍人士准备至少35%的首付款,并要求该笔款项在加拿大存放30到90天。有时候,借贷机构还会要求不足35%首付款的贷款人购买房屋借贷保险。

 

6、加拿大最具房地产投资价值的城市有哪些?

 

要判断加拿大具体城市的房地产投资价值,需要同时考虑几个关键因素:城市规模、人口增长、经济总量、产业结构。综合考虑以上关键条件以及气候等相关因素,加拿大具有较大地产投资价值的城市主要包括:多伦多及其周边城市(安大略省)、大温哥华(不列颠哥伦比亚省)、卡尔加里(艾伯塔省)、萨斯卡通(萨斯喀彻温省)、里贾纳(萨斯喀彻温省)。

 

 

选房问题:

 

8、加拿大是买新房还是旧房?

 

买新公寓固然是一个不错的选择,可目前加拿大合适的房源要么房价太高,要么户型不合适,而且大多是楼花,所以不能马上入住。就拿目前本拿比加拿大铁道镇(Metrotown)附近的高层公寓来说,虽然周边未来规划非常吸引人,但几处新建楼盘最早也要到明年冬天才能建成,且价格也远高于周围的旧房。这对于有自住需求的新家庭来说,新房显然不是最佳选择。

 

相反,二手房基本可以马上入住,而且随时可通过地产经纪安排看房。即使有些二手房的设施比较陈旧,如厨房及卫生间,但只要格局合理,配以简单的装修,一样能有新家的感觉。

 

楼花不能马上入住,是价钱比较吸引的原因,可是未必适合作为婚房。

 

另外,都市上班族一般都是“打卡一族”,如果两人不幸同属“打卡一族”,那么距离两人工作单位较近或者临近公共交通的二手房就是一个不错的选择。这样可以降低交通成本,节约上班时间。

 

9、加拿大的民用住宅一般分哪几种?

 

  1. 独立屋(DETATCHED,亦称SINGLEHOUSE):是建筑在所属土地上的单一独立房屋,业主拥有房屋与土地的权利,无管理费。

  2. 半独立房屋(SEMI-DETATCHED):房屋的一侧同另一所房屋的外墙相连,无管理费。

  3. 连排镇屋(TOWNHOUSES):一排房屋两侧均相连,分为有管理费和无管理费两种,取决于物业是否有与其他业主共同拥有的共用和共管部分。

  4. 共管公寓(CONDOMINIUM),每个单元有独立的业主,与其他业主共同拥有其共用和共有部分的权利,有管理费。


流程问题:


10、去加拿大买房的基本流程是怎样的?

 

 

11、加拿大买房“下offer”是什么?


在加拿大的房地产交易中,Offer实际上就是一种“买卖的协议(AgreementofPurchaseandSale),它可以由买方准备,也可以由卖方准备,但通常都是由买方准备。买方的经纪人根据买方的要求起草,由买方签字后再交由卖方过目。卖方可以CounterOffer(还盘),买方也可以再还回去,几个回合之后,双方达成一致,在Offer上签字,该Offer即成为了具有法律约束力的合同,双方都要遵守。

 

一份标准的购房Offer通常包括以下内容:

 

1、基本细节:售房者、购房者的姓名,待售房屋的地址。

2、购买价格,同时包括定金、首付款和银行贷款等。

3、私人物品的处理,如窗帘、厨房电器、洗衣机和烘干机等是否留下。

4、买卖双方承担的基本责任和义务。

5、交房时间和要求对方答复的期限。

 

12、如何在加拿大“抢意向书(offer)”?

 

第一要了解市场。尤其是遇到要价较低的房子要冷静的分析房屋的真实市场价格。同时设定自己对房屋的喜爱程度而愿意为此而多付的价格。这二者之和大致就是应该出的价格。这个价格我喜欢称之为不后悔的价格。无论是买到还是没有买到都不会后悔。需要指出的是抢Offer同一般买房的过程地最大区别是中间环节少,往往是一轮定论,而没有实际讨价还价的经过几个回合。所以出价最好一步到位,以免丧失良机。

 

第二,事先到银行做好贷款评估或预批,了解自己的底线是多少,对自己的承受能力做到心中有数。

 

第三,事先验屋,最好能够取消验屋条件,但不能一概而论。

 

第四,准备好定金,最后是搬家。这些细节在最后关头对你是否胜出非常重要,并且能够给你省下钱。

 

13、签下offer后,能反悔吗?

 

如果是抢Offer,竞标者一般要提交一张5%房价的支票给卖家,买家如果反悔,这笔钱会被卖家收走,所以这时候的反悔是有明确成本的。即使买家尚未提交押金,所以风险较小,但是也不能抱着侥幸的态度,尽量把事情处理完满。

 

贷款问题:

 

14、外籍人士购房是否可以向加拿大银行贷款;能贷多少;是否和房屋的年龄,购买者的年龄有关

 

可以贷款,加拿大居民通常可以很轻易地贷款房价的70%,非加拿大居民可以贷到60%-65%。贷款可以分20-25年摊还,目前贷款利率比中国要低不少。贷款和房屋的年龄无关,和购买者年龄也基本无关,这也从某方面体现了加拿大银行对房价的信心。

 

15、外籍人士申请房屋按揭贷款与本地居民相比有什么特殊要求?申请的程序如何呢?

 

和本地人没有什么实质的区别,程序也差不多。要说区别,那就是外籍人士不享受本国居民享有的“自住房”免增值税优惠,外国人投资的所有房子在出售变现时,其部分利润都必须交增值税。外国人申请房屋按揭贷款时,银行和金融机构考察的也无非是申请人的基本情况、收入、信用、首付、以及房子的位置状况等。但是基于外籍人士的特殊情况,居外认为以下几点还是有必要说明一下。

第一,外籍人士申请加拿大房屋按揭贷款时,需要在加拿大银行开立全功能的账户,以便按月支付月供。

 

第二,外籍居民在加拿大申请贷款时可以没有信用记录。

 

16、购买房屋贷款需要准备哪些文件?

 

购买房屋贷款需要准备的文件大约分三个部分,房屋材料,工作等个人材料以及首付材料。

 

房屋材料主要是说房屋购买合同,如果是买新房,需要和开发商签的厚厚的合同。

 

工作材料是银行审核最细的部分,如果你是某个公司的全职雇员,一般必须要有的是:

 

  1. 工作信,公司抬头纸,注明公司名称,地址,电话,传真,写明申请人的全名,是否全职,在本公司开始工作的时间,职务,工资。

  2. 工资存根,公司给的工资单。

     

 

有的银行还会要求提供过去的T4或者税局的税单评估通知。

 

除了工作材料外,还需要一些个人材料例如照片等以及一些个人信息。

 

17、签了房屋买卖合同,但拿不到银行贷款怎么办?

 

大多数人买房是需要申请银行贷款的,而且许多人是在签订买房合同后才与银行商洽贷款事项,因此有可能出现签了合同拿不到贷款的情况。在这种情况下如何取消合同而又避免违约责任呢?买主在购房合同中一定要加上一个条件条款(conditionclause),即允许买主在几天之内申请贷款,如果拿不到要求的贷款额度或利率标准,买主有权取消合同,所有定金退回买主,双方互不追究责任。

 

这个条款不包含在标准合同中,买主要根据自己的信贷能力把这个条款加入合同中,才能够给自己留一条退路,不至于因为拿不到贷款而违约。同样,如果买卖任何一方在房屋交吉前要求某项条件必须满足,比如买主要求验房,或者是要先卖掉现住的房子才能买新房等等,那么双方一定要把各自的要求以条件形式明确写入合同,以备万一该条件达不到时,可以取消合同。

 

房产经纪问题:

 

18、买房需要房产经纪吗?

 

在国内买房,不一定要找房产经纪,只要看对眼了,直接向卖房公司交钱就是。在加拿大则不同,先不说这里大量买卖的不是新房,而是二手房;另外一方面,买房的手续,包括前期的考察、买房过程中的谈判、后期的合同签署等过程非常繁复,如果没有一位负责任、经验丰富的地产经纪来保驾护航,自己恐怕是操碎了心都不见得能住上满意的房子。

 

19、如何选择信得过的房产经纪

 

首先,该经纪人必须是在当地地産局注册并接受相关法律制约的经济人;其次,加拿大房産买卖的运作和中国不同,绝大部分仿佛都是挂在地産局网站上公开发售的,也就是说所有经纪人面对的房源基本一致,因此房屋在定价时很自然的受到市场的制约,哄擡房价的行爲几乎不可能。可以这麽说,加拿大绝大多数地産经纪们都值得信赖,他们除了本职工作尽心尽力,同时也爲新移民尽快适应移民初期生活做出了大量的贡献。

 

20、加拿大房产经纪的收费标准是什么?

 

在买卖房屋的过程中,经纪的费用是由卖方支付。经纪费用的标准计算方法是,卖价的前10万元按7%支付,余下的部分按2.5%支付。例如一幢100万的房产,经纪费用的计算方式为(100,000x7%)+(900,000x2.5%)=$29500元。所得的29500元再由买方和卖方经纪分摊,卖方经纪得到总额的54%,买方经纪分得46%,因此在这幢房产中,卖方经纪赚得15930元,买方经纪得到13570元。

税费问题:

 

21、在加拿大买房需要交多少税费?

 

 

22、加拿大买房需要支付押金吗?

 

买房押金:一般为房屋价格的5%,此项金额要在合同谈好后的24小时内交纳,并会在成交日时成为首付款的一部分。

 

23、加拿大首次购房税收可以减免吗?

 

如果你首次在加拿大买房,你可以要求最多750元的税收减免。

这项新的税收减免从2009年开始实施,税收减免额的计算方法是:将5000元乘以该年最低个人所得税税率(2009年是15%),得出的金额就是该年首次购房税收减免额。

 

要想获得这笔税收减免,申请人要同时满足两个条件:

 

1.该房产是你、配偶或事实婚姻伴侣购买的;

2.在购房当年和过去四年内,你没有住在自己、配偶或事实婚姻伴侣所属的房产内。一处房产所能申请的税收减免额不得超过750元。


保险问题:

 

24、房屋保险一定要买吗?

 

对加拿大人而言,购买住房后的第一件事就是购买住宅保险。虽然法律并没有强制规定住宅物业必须购买保险,但很多人因为提供按揭服务的银行要求客户为房屋买保险,所以不得不买。大陆移民要应该理解,购买房屋保险不仅仅是降低银行的贷款风险,对于住户也可以很好的控制意外造成的损失。房保同车保一样是我们生活中的必不可缺,即使身为土豪的你已经供完了全部贷款,继续购买保险也不是一件坏事。

收益问题:

 

25、在加拿大买房,投资回报率有多高?

 

在加拿大投资地产,准确地计算投资回报率,是我们决定是否要投资房地产,以及如何选择投资类物业的最关键问题。简单地说,投资回报率是指投资所产生的收益与投入本金的比例。

 

通常,贷款比例越大,投资回报率越高,但现金流也越低。还清贷款时,现金流情况最好,但投资回报率最低。20%首付的情况下,在多伦多市中心的公寓投资,按照现在的贷款利率,年投资回报率可以达到8-9%;北约克或其他地方公寓楼的投资回报率在7%-8%。

 

26、中国投资者如何在加拿大卖房?


  1. 明确为何要卖房

  2. 订价前做好充分的市场调研

  3. 参观别人的OPENHOUSE

  4. 只与认真负责的优秀经纪合作

  5. 房屋的内、外观留给买家(准买家)的第一印象很重要

  6. 精心装饰,强化视觉效果

  7. 去除房屋异味

  8. 不怕暴露房子的问题

  9. 谈价过程中应控制好情绪

  10. 充分了解你的买家

  11. 卖出前,不要搬出

  12. 确认合同是完整的

非加拿大居民在加拿大出售房地产时,所有的资本收益都需要支付税款。正常的加拿大税率为收益的50%。但是,非居民需要在出售前缴纳税款的预估值,相当于收益的25%。

 

这一部分税款由卖方的律师保留到加拿大税务局(CRA)下发本房产出售的清关证书。付款后,当买卖合同的所有条件都移除之后,加拿大税务局会给卖家发出清关证书。证书发放周期通常为6~8周。如果没有取得证书,买方将无法继续交易,同时还需扣留25~50%的房款。

 

房贷于截止日期之前转移到卖方的律师,然后给卖家,随后再将房产证转移到买方名下。

 

卖方如果不是加拿大公民,则应提交交易进行当年的加拿大所得税纳税申报表,应该会收到已缴税款的部分退款。加拿大房产税取决于房产主要用于居住还是用于出租。如果它被用来作为出租物业,必须支付非居民税,为租客支付的总租金的25%。但是,如果雇用了专业的物业经理,经理将根据法律规定代扣25%的租金,也就是说,只需要上报给税务局75%的租金收入。然后在次年3月31日之前,物业经理发出NR4表格,那么业主就有权提交加拿大报税的材料。纳税申报必须于6月30日前发出。

 

许多国家,如美国与加拿大有税务条约,这是为了防止公民受到二次征税。建议在卖房前,先向加拿大税务会计师咨询获取更多信息。

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So much has happened in the past month outside of the real estate market and it's effect is a complete unknown. Perhaps the best way to weigh it out would be both in positive and negatives.
 
THE ELECTION:
(negatives)
- the obvious being the lack of strong representation from this region. But as Alberta slowly transforms from a "have" to "have not" province, Trudeau would be ill advised to not consider a better transfer payment option for the province.
(positives)
-infrastructure spending equals jobs, which is what we need. Perhaps leading to a slow down of the housing decline here.
 
THE KEYSTONE PIPELINE
(negatives)
-no denying it was anticipated, but it still hurts badly.
(positives)
maybe an acceleration of the east-west pipeline and a hard candid look to more sustainable industry development in Alberta.
 
THE HARDLINE:
It is going to hurt. For how long, no one knows. Prices have dropped quickly, especially in some areas, and will continue to slide or level off for a year or more. Some are predicting a bit more activity in the spring, but it is literally dead now. If you are planning on buying, you probably can wait, but the dead of winter is as good a time as any.  And something to remember: IT IS WISER TO BUY WHEN THE NEWS IS BAD, THAN BE IN COMPETITION WITH OTHERS WHEN THE NEWS IS GOOD.
 
All the best to a warm and productive November.
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Fall is supposed to be the second most frenzied time of activity in Calgary's housing market.  Some will tell you (as I did recently) that business is still brisk at the under 500K level and to a certain degree that is true.  However, the news keeps getting worse on Canada's economy and that makes both buyers and investors nervous.  Suddenly, this past few days, there is a flood of new homes on the market, after a somewhat slow month.  It seems sellers are getting nervous and are putting the house on the market now, whereas last month many were thinking maybe spring.

 

  It all adds up to more inventory, and less buyers.  Prices have dropped, and will likely to continue through the winter, even in the 500K range.  However it is very important to note that most buyers, as instructed by savvy Realtors, will list low in accordance to the market. I'm seeing, in most cases, prices already adjusted to the realities of the market. That said, there is wiggle room still in purchase price vs list price ratios, but it will be unlikely a huge difference, especially if there are price drops occurring after listing.  Again, depending on the desperation of the seller, low-ball offers may or may not work, and often increases a seller's resistance to negotiate.

 

  To conclude, the buyer's market is officially here and likely to stay for a while. It will definitely be a good winter if you are a buyer.

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