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油價下跌對卡城房產市場的影響開始顯現

卡加利地產局(CREB)警告,預料當地住宅樓價會隨着失業率上升而進一步下跌,標誌着油價下跌對卡城樓市產生的效應現時纔真正開始顯現。

 

CREB在周三發表的一份年度中期報告中預測,今年二手樓價可能會全年下跌0.2%,而銷售就會比2014年少22%。

雖則現時逐漸浮現的前景遠未至於樓市崩圍,但地產局亦承認,卡城的經濟展望較其今年1月時所預測的差得多,當時,該局曾預期卡城住宅樓價今年會有1.58%升幅。地產局說,隨着油價重新跌至50美元一桶水平之下,卡加利的經濟「持續受某種程度的不明朗陰霾籠罩」。

 

經濟學家預期,卡城今年經濟會收縮1.2%。自今年1月以來,卡加利已失去接近1.2萬個全職職位,其中不少是高薪職位,雖則同期間增加了約2.4萬個兼職職位。地產局引述諮議局經濟預測指,今年內卡城可能會另外再多流失2.3萬職位。

用以衡量同類房屋樓價變動的基準住宅樓價,很可能會於今年年底跌至448,354元;比較早時預測的上升至456,346元為差。6月平均基準樓價為455,133元。

 

今年上半年內,獨立屋銷售對比上年同期下跌了25%。售價高於60萬元的貴價樓見放盤量升幅最大,銷售跌幅最大。全城空置率較上年同期已見增加逾倍,由去年大約1.5%,上升至3.6%;期間新建成公寓數目日增。

 

新出租單位供應過剩已令多住戶式公寓樓價較上年同期下降了2%。

地產局預測︰「新屋及出租市場供應水平很可能會持續上升,而隨着今年較晚時賣家售意更濃,二手樓放盤量下降速度也可能會放緩。」

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