Calgary Real Estate Analysis January to August 2019
With summer behind us, a few new trends are affecting the Calgary market which otherwise has maintained a somewhat dormant state.
One of the marked increases is the number of new listings over the spring and summer months which brought total listings from a January low of 5000+ to just over 7000. While this figure is well below last year’s high of 8900, it surpasses what was happening leading into the fall of 2016 and 2017. As a result, days on the market (DOM) now has increased across the board. Less so for condos/which were high already, but more for the 500K+ detached and semi-detached homes. The average is about 60 days, slightly above average, but for houses in the 70 - million+ range it rises incrementally with million+ houses staying on the market for 8 months. The major sales continue to be in the 300-400K range with first time home buyers jumping in and taking advantage of a buyer's market. Another trend that seems to be continuing is the "house flip" trend, buying of cheap houses, renovating and flipping.
Average price year over year has stayed at about -2 to -3%, with little change month to month, summer from spring. The benchmark price has begun to increase as buyers are starting to take advantage of lowered prices on houses on the high end. The sales to listing ratio has decreased from a spring high of about 67% to about 51% now, meaning as more houses are being listed, sales are not keeping up with them. While the summer has been quite slow, August was VERY SLOW. With the upcoming Federal election looming, it seems a lot of buyers continue to sit on the fence until the results are known.
Looking forward is very difficult. There might be a slight fall surge after such a slow summer. Positive news on the jobs front have helped with some new industries both in and outside of the oil patch getting a kick start. Employment numbers are slowly increasing in Calgary and the imminent return to work on TransMountain should help.
Sellers continue to hold onto their prices. Though decreases are seen every day, listing prices seem to be on the high side, edging close to where they were in early 2013. We've been bottomed out for months, we're not crawling out yet, but there is a sense of moving forward. Next month will tell more clearly.