Real Estate Market during COVID-19 in Calgary
Of course the Covid-19 is adversely affecting the market and with that, the tank in oil prices leaves a lot of uncertainty in the future for Alberta. News today showed that China's economy is already on the rebound and that gives hope that things may turn here sooner than later.
Total sales in Calgary last year in April were 1544, this year 572 or a drop of 63%. May so far is looking even worse at -76.32%. New listings continued to drop in April by 54% and so far 62% in May. Active listings in April are down 21.4% from last April; down 22.3% so far in May. Not surprisingly, people are refraining from listing or pulling unsold homes from the market. Average Price in April was down 8.25% and pending sales were down 60%. Days on Market (DOM) increased slightly in April by 2%, but were up 24% so far in May, insinuating the sales occurring in the past few days sees buyers scooping up long standing listings.
Annual YearToDate (YTD) stats show -21% in total sales, -22% in new listings, average price of all homes dropping 2.8%, Med. Price no change, Pending Sales down 29%, and DOM down 5% from last year. As unnerving as these stats are, the fact that 2019 was not a great year makes it even more concerning. But to put it all in perspective, this is all about Covid-19 and the impact it's having on housing markets across Canada and around the world.
Breaking things in Detached, Attached and Condo/Townhouses, here are the Stats:
Detached - TS (TOTALS SALES) versus one year ago:
April down 63%, May down 72%; NL (NEW LISTINGS) Apr down 56%, May down 65%; Medium and Average price -3 to --8%, more slightly cheaper homes being bought with a higher drop in the average price. Pending sales down 78% in April and fortunately a huge drop in DOM of 40%.
Attached - TOTAL SALES - Apr down 63%, May down almost 83%! NEW LISTINGS - down 50% in April; Active listings down 21%; Med Price down 2.5%; Ave Price down 6.5%. Pending sales down 70% and DOM up 5%.
Condo/Townhouse - TOTALS SALES down 62%; NEW LISTINGS down 54%; Active down 13%, Med. Price down ONLY .87 or less than 1%. Ave Price down 7%, Pending Sales down 27% and DOM DOWN 6%.
Benchmark price, the TRUE INDICATOR of what home prices are doing are down only 1% for detached homes, and down slightly more than 2% for attached and Condo/Townhouses. With DOM also decreasing on Average in April, it does mean what is on the market is selling fasting. While, in general, listings coming onto the market are competitive in price, they are not being listed at bargain prices. It means what is selling is usually after a drop in price or at a much lower percentage of asking price than is normal (historically about 2-4% below asking). On higher end homes, in the 800 to million price range, sale prices have been 50k to 80k below original list price or drops of nearly 10%, while many in the million have seen sales 200K plus below original asking.
The challenges for sellers is obvious at this time. But there are challenges for buyers as well, with restrictive rules on showings, no open houses, and generally less listings on the market.
Most experienced Realtors agree that while the Spring Market is a write-off, if the Covid situation gets under control soon, we will have a surge of activity towards the late summer and into the fall. How much prices fall between now and then depends on the economic fallout and the necessity of sellers to sell.
For now, it's a hunker down situation and what happens could be anyone's guess. I'm taking it slow now myself and adhering to social distancing rules as much as possible. My sincerest hopes that all will make it through these trying times relatively unscathed. If you need further explanation as to the interpretation of market movement, please feel free to contact me. If you know anyone that is keen to sell (or even buy), we'd be happy to advise them. Thanks for your attention.